America’s supermarkets are about to be stress-tested again. Between President Trump’s new tariff regime and a hot war with Iran that’s already rattling oil markets, retailers and brands are staring at another round of cost shocks that could hit center store, fresh, and the forecourt all at once.
On February 24, the administration put a blanket 10 percent tariff on almost all imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act, after shelving a more targeted set of duties imposed under emergency powers. This sits on top of the tangle of earlier Trump-era tariffs on China, steel and aluminum, furniture, trucks, and a host of other products that were layered in through 2025.
Here’s why that matters for grocers – according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, even before this latest move, tariff increases on food and agriculture in 2025 pushed up the cost of imported items and helped fuel higher prices at the grocery store and in restaurants.
A recent analysis from American Progress found that, compared with a no-tariff scenario, American consumers in January 2026 were paying roughly 12 percent more for coffee, tea, and cocoa, 8 percent more for fish and seafood, 7 percent more for fruits, and 5 percent more for meat, specifically attributable to the administration’s tariff policies.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also calculated that just four months of elevated food and ag tariffs in 2025 generated an additional 647 percent in tax collections on those items versus 2024, before many of those specific surcharges were rolled back in November.
The Agriculture Department still projects food-at-home prices rising about 2.3 percent in 2026, similar to 2025’s increase, even as some highly visible items like eggs and certain dairy SKUs have come down. The topline looks calm, but under the surface, tariffs are reshaping which categories get hit and how hard.
Now let’s add a shooting war with Iran to that tariff backdrop.
The Iran War And Oil Shock
Oil markets have already flinched. As of the second week of March, London benchmark Brent had topped $100 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate sits at $99 and climbing. The Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 20 percent of the world’s oil moves, has seen tanker traffic halt or reroute as shippers reassess risk after Iranian warnings and U.S.-Israeli strikes. Analysts estimate that even with alternate routes, a serious constraint at Hormuz could remove 8 to 10 million barrels per day from the market, enough to add perhaps $20 a barrel to crude prices if conditions worsen.
What this means for grocery retailers here at home is:
Historically, a $1 increase in crude can translate into roughly a 2 to 3 cent per gallon moves at the pump; one analyst recently pegged the near-term pass-through at about 13 cents per gallon from the latest run-up.
Higher fuel prices hit shoppers twice: directly at the gas station pump and through transportation surcharges embedded in the products on your shelves.
These Supermarket Categories Are Most Exposed
Most food sold in U.S. supermarkets is still domestically produced, but these items in your stores are far from insulated: coffee, tea, cocoa, and chocolate. The U.S. imports the overwhelming majority of these products, and tariff-linked data already shows double-digit price impacts versus pre-tariff trends. Expect more pressure as the global 10 percent duty applies across many origins and as freight and insurance premiums rise on disrupted trade lanes.
Tropical fruits and off-season produce – bananas, mangoes, pineapples, and counter-seasonal berries and vegetables – have already posted above-trend price increases tied partly to tariffs. A higher fuel bill for reefers and container ships, especially if routes around the Middle East lengthen, only adds to landed cost.
Seafood – with significant volumes sourced from Asia and other overseas fisheries, seafood is seeing around an 8 percent tariff-driven uplift above pre-tariff baselines, and that’s before we even calculate fuel and cold-chain costs increases.
Meat and poultry – while the U.S. is a major meat producer, tariffs have pushed meat prices roughly 5 percent above where they would be without the trade actions, and that’s before you factor in more expensive feed, fertilizer, and fuel.
Farm inputs – tariffs on steel, aluminum, equipment, and certain chemicals, plus higher energy prices, elevate the cost of fertilizer, seeds, and machinery. Those costs work their way into grains, produce, and animal feed, then into just about everything on your store shelves.
Cans, bottles, and packaging – tariffs and reciprocal duties on metals like aluminum have helped push up the costs of canned and frozen foods, soda, and other beverages by raising packaging costs. With oil rising, plastic packaging and films will also feel cost pressure because they’re derived from petrochemicals.
What Smart Retailers Should Do Now
The administration is touting “tamed” inflation while simultaneously implementing new tariffs and prosecuting a conflict that threatens to push energy and freight costs higher. That is a hard story to square with what your customers will experience in the aisle. Retailers can’t control tariffs or geopolitics, but they absolutely can manage their exposure — and the retailers who act now, rather than waiting for costs to force their hand, will be in a materially better position by summer.
Get ahead of your vendors now, before the cost letters arrive. Every retailer reading this knows what a cost-increase letter looks like; and how little negotiating leverage you have once one lands on your desk. The window to get in front of suppliers in the most tariff-exposed categories (coffee, seafood, tropical produce, canned goods) is right now. Ask your key vendors specifically: What share of your COGS is tied to imported inputs? What is your current inventory coverage at pre-tariff costs? At what crude price level do your freight surcharges trigger? What is your planned timing for any price-increase notices? Those who wait will be reacting.
Use this moment to accelerate private label in the most exposed categories. Private label has been the consistent winner every time branded prices spike, and there’s no reason to expect this cycle to be different. The retailers who benefit most aren’t the ones who simply let shoppers trade down; they’re the ones who actively merchandise the shift. In categories like canned seafood, coffee, and shelf-stable cooking staples, a well-placed, competitively priced store brand can capture a shopper and retain them long after the tariff environment stabilizes. The conversation with your store brand suppliers should mirror the one with your national brand vendors: where are your inputs coming from, and what is your cost exposure?
Think strategically about selective forward buying – but do the math carefully. For shelf-stable categories with high import exposure including coffee, canned seafood, cocoa-based products, certain cooking oils your forward buying at current costs is worth a serious look if warehouse capacity allows. The calculus is straightforward: if you have credible reason to believe tariff-driven cost increases of 8–12 percent are coming in the next 60 to 90 days, carrying 60 days of additional inventory at current prices is almost certainly cheaper than absorbing the increase.
Actively merchandise what isn’t exposed. Most food sold in American supermarkets is still domestically grown, raised, or processed; and that is a story worth telling loudly right now. Locally sourced produce, domestically produced dairy, U.S.-raised beef and pork, American-made shelf-stable staples: these are your price-stability anchors in a tariff environment. Shoppers who are worried about rising prices will respond to clear, honest merchandising that points them toward value. “Grown in the USA” has always had emotional resonance; right now, it also has economic logic. Retailers who lean into in-store signage, digital promotions, and fact-based messaging can give anxious shoppers a sense of control and a genuine reason to choose their store over a competitor.
Communicate honestly and specifically – and do it before shoppers ask. When coffee prices jump or bananas tick up, explain why in plain language, at the shelf, in your app, and through your ad and promotion communications. Consumers are more likely to accept moderate price moves when they understand that tariffs and geopolitical disruption, and not retailer price gouging, are driving the increase. The key word is “before.” Shoppers who notice a price jump without any context default to the assumption that the grocer is taking advantage of them. Your shoppers know the world is volatile. They want your grocery store to be the one institution that is straight with them. And that builds loyalty and trust.
A lesson learned over the past few years is that shocks rarely arrive one at a time. Today’s combination, a tariff-heavy trade stance and a shooting war in a critical oil-shipping chokepoint, sets the stage for another complex pricing cycle in food retail. The retailers who navigate it best are the ones who saw it coming, worked diligently with their suppliers, doubled down on domestic goods and private label, and told their shoppers the truth. Are you prepared to do that?
