By Phil Lempert, The Supermarket Guru
I came home from Dubai’s Gulfood 2026 food show this year thinking less about robots and AI, and more about families.
Walking those two massive venues in Dubai, I kept hearing the same themes from retailers and brands: a longer-term view of agriculture, a deeper commitment to sustainability, and a patient, generational mindset about growth.
Many of the most interesting businesses I met were still run by families; siblings, cousins, second- and third-generation leaders who talked about soil health and water use in the same breath as EBITDA and export strategy.
It felt, frankly, like a flashback to my early days entering American grocery through the lens of the families that ran ShopRites, Pathmark and Food Fair. This was a time when names on the storefronts throughout the region often matched the families bagging the groceries and sponsoring the Little League team.
For someone who spent a lot of my food years in the New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and Maryland markets, that struck a nerve.
Our region is still dotted with family-controlled and regional operators, like Brown’s in Philadelphia, Wegmans’ ever expanding Northeast operation, Giant Eagle, Weis Markets, and Redner’s in Pennsylvania, Wawa in Pennsylvania, and a long trail of independent banners across metro New York and New Jersey. These all quietly take that longer view every day.
What I saw at Gulfood made it clear: those shared values are now intersecting with three powerful forces that are already reshaping food retail globally and will hit our stores here at home: GLP-1 drugs, the loneliness epidemic, and the “no-buy” movement.
Dubai Showed Three Forces Your Stores Can’t Ignore
In fact, my keynote in Dubai was titled “Beyond the Basket: How Loneliness, GLP-1s, and ‘No-Buy’ Movements Are Redefining Global Food Retail.” The core message was simple: if you’re still planning your business around the old assumptions, like growing appetites, more volume, or more trips, you’re aiming at a shopper who is vanishing.
GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic and Wegovy are dramatically reshaping how some consumers eat and shop. People on these medications report smaller appetites, less interest in snacking, and more deliberation over what they put in their carts.
At the same time, we are living through what public health leaders call a loneliness epidemic; roughly half of adults report significant loneliness, which changes not just how they feel, but how they eat and whether they see food as a social event or a solo chore. Layer on top of that a rising “no-buy” and frugality culture, shoppers who are consciously opting out of unnecessary purchases, delaying upgrades, and scrutinizing every grocery dollar, and you get a fundamentally different retail landscape than the one most planograms were built for.
This is offering grocery retailers an opportunity.
For regional and family operators in our corridor, this isn’t an abstract, global theory. It shows up in tighter baskets, more price-sensitive trips, and shoppers who come in for a few very specific items and skip everything else you’ve so carefully merchandised.
What GLP-1 Is Doing To The Basket
The first change is mechanical: GLP-1 medications blunt appetite.
Emerging research and early retail data show people on these drugs tend to: buy fewer total calories and smaller portions; cut back on ultra-processed snacks and sugary beverages; and show more interest in higher-protein, higher-fiber, and fresher foods when they do buy.
For a Northeast and Mid-Atlantic grocer, this means that your classic “pile it high, watch it fly” approach to salty snacks and sweets is less reliable with a growing slice of shoppers. Those giant end caps of family-sized cookies may matter less than single-serve, portion-controlled, and better-for-you indulgences that can be enjoyed without derailing someone’s progress.
It also has implications for private label. If GLP-1 users are eating less overall but trading up on quality, your own brands need to be able to credibly compete on taste, nutrition, and packaging in smaller formats – even if that means rethinking margin structures item by item. Kroger’s foray into a new private label formulated for high protein (and GLP-1 users) should set off lightbulbs.
The attendees and exhibitors I spoke with at Gulfood are already experimenting with format and formulation. I’m talking about smaller packs with premium positioning, protein-forward snacks, high-fiber bakery, and ready meals designed for satisfaction, not excess.
That’s a roadmap for our region as well, especially for retailers who can move faster than national chains on local assortment and private label tweaks.
Loneliness, “Table For One,” And The Changing Role Of The Store
The second force is less visible but just as powerful: loneliness.
When eating becomes a mostly solitary activity, behavior shifts. Lonely consumers are more prone to emotional and “reward-based” eating, especially sweets, and at the same time many lose motivation to cook or experiment when it’s “just me.” Studies of people living and eating alone show patterns we can all recognize: smaller, more frequent trips or, conversely, infrequent stock-up runs with simple, repetitive items; more reliance on long-shelf-life pantry items and ready meals; and reduced variety and less complex cooking, like soups, sandwiches, frozen entrees, and eggs-for-dinner.
For a grocer in Philadelphia or Baltimore, this may look like a customer who used to buy ingredients for a full Sunday dinner now grabbing a single prepared entrée and a dessert every week. Or the older shopper in South Jersey who buys the same few canned and frozen items every visit, because cooking “for one” feels like a burden.
The flip side is opportunity. If loneliness is a health risk on the order of smoking, as the surgeon general has warned, then retailers have an opening to position themselves as part of the solution – not just another store with four walls and fluorescent lights.
I’m already seeing pockets of this in our region, with events, retail dietitians, cooking classes, kids’ activities, cafés, and community tables inside the store. But Gulfood underscored how global this idea has become: food businesses leaning into hospitality and connection as part of their value proposition.
In practical terms, this may mean: designing smaller seating areas in-store where customers can linger with a coffee or a prepared meal; programming regular “community nights” around local teams, school fundraisers, or recipe themes; and using your loyalty app to invite specific segments, like new parents, seniors, and young professionals to low-pressure social events.
In an era of GLP-1 and no-buy, you may not sell more calories, but you can deepen loyalty and relevance by being a place where people feel seen.
The “No-Buy” Mindset Makes A Grocery Run
Finally, the “no-buy” movement and broader trend toward frugality are changing how shoppers view consumption.
While social media often emphasizes fashion or electronics “no-spend” challenges, the underlying mindset is bleeding into grocery: a focus on using what’s at home, reducing food waste, and cutting out “non-essential” purchases. For retailers, that means: ewer impulse buys at checkout and on endcaps;
greater scrutiny of premium niche items; and shoppers using lists more, strictly “sticking to the plan.”
In our Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern markets, where housing, utilities, and transportation costs weigh heavily, this shift hits hard. A family in New Jersey may still walk your aisles every week, but they are consciously pruning extras. A single shopper in Delaware may be using your circular to cherry-pick promotions while ignoring everything else.
The Gulfood conversations that stuck with me were with owners who said, in so many words, “We are planning for a world where people will buy less stuff, but demand more from what they do buy.”
That’s as true in Dubai as it is in Scranton or suburban Maryland.
What This Means For Northeast And Mid-Atlantic Retailers
Put these three forces together and you get a clear mandate for our region’s grocers – especially the family and regional players who can still turn the wheel faster than a national chain.
Rethink size and value. Smaller appetites and “no-buy” behavior make right-sizing packs critical. That doesn’t just mean shrinking packages; it means re-framing value around satisfaction per occasion, not volume per dollar. A great fresh single-serve lasagna that truly feeds one well may be more valuable than a cheap frozen family pan that gets half thrown away.
Invest in quality and health. GLP-1 users who decide to indulge want those calories to count, and lonelier shoppers often turn to food as their primary comfort. That puts a premium on fresh, flavorful, nutritionally credible foods. Retailers in our markets should aggressively curate and spotlight better-for-you indulgences, high-protein and high-fiber options, and prepared meals that feel both comforting and modern.
Design for singles and small households. The days of assuming every cart is feeding a family of four are over. Endcaps, planograms, and promotions should explicitly consider “table for one or two” occasions: smaller packs of produce, single-serve bakery, split-pack proteins, and meal kits scaled down for apartments, not McMansions.
Turn stores into social infrastructure. Loneliness will not be solved by a single community board or a café, but every step that makes your store a more human, welcoming environment matters. Think about how your layout, lighting, music, and staff training either encourage or discourage casual interaction. Consider partnering with local groups – libraries, schools, senior centers – to host activities that bring people into the store for connection, not just consumption.
Use technology to support restraint, not just upsell. Loyalty apps and personalization engines have mostly been tuned to get shoppers to buy more. In a GLP-1-using, lonely, no-buy” world, there is room for retailers who help customers buy better: tools that plan realistic portions, suggest recipes that use what’s already in the pantry, and nudge people toward healthier patterns instead of endless add-ons.
Back To Our Roots With A New Playbook
What struck me in Dubai was that many of the businesses thinking this way are family-led, just like so many banners across our region. They are betting on agriculture that restores instead of depletes; on supply chains built for resilience, not just speed; and on customer relationships that span decades, not quarters.
Our markets have always been a proving ground for the next chapter of grocery; they’re dense, diverse, and demanding. The families and regional operators who built this landscape did it by knowing their communities and adapting early.
GLP-1 drugs will change what goes into the basket. Loneliness will change what that basket means. The “no-buy” movement will change how often and why shoppers push that cart down your aisle. The retailers in our region who embrace these realities – with the same long-term, values-driven perspective I heard so often at Gulfood – will be the ones whose family names are still above the door a generation from now.
