Grocery shoppers may have regained some purchasing power as wage growth catches up with food inflation, but many of the value-focused habits formed during the past several years appear to be sticking, according to new research released by Acosta Group.
The company’s inaugural Affordability Tracker examines grocery affordability by comparing the cost of a typical grocery stock-up trip with median hourly earnings in the United States. While the report found grocery purchasing power has improved since bottoming out in 2023, consumers continue shopping with a heightened focus on value, promotions and careful spending.
Acosta’s research found its representative 84-item “Typical Stock-Up Trip” now costs more than $366, roughly 27% higher than in 2020. Although wage growth has restored some of the purchasing power consumers lost during the inflation surge, the report suggests many shoppers have permanently adjusted how they make purchasing decisions.
“Most conversations focus primarily on prices, but grocery affordability is best understood through the relationship between what consumers spend and what they earn,” said Colin Stewart, executive vice president of business intelligence for Acosta Group.
Among the report’s key findings:
- The cost of a typical grocery stock-up trip has risen approximately 27% since 2020.
- Wage growth has partially offset higher grocery prices, improving purchasing power from its 2023 low.
- Affordability gains have slowed, with future improvements likely to be more gradual.
- Consumers continue actively seeking promotions, comparing prices and scrutinizing purchases despite improving affordability.
The findings suggest retailers and consumer packaged goods companies should not expect shoppers to simply revert to their pre-pandemic purchasing patterns as inflation eases.
Instead, Acosta argues consumers have developed more disciplined shopping behaviors that could prove durable even as economic conditions improve. The report notes shoppers remain under pressure from higher housing, insurance, healthcare and transportation costs, contributing to continued financial caution despite improving grocery affordability.
“The most important implication may be that improving grocery purchasing power alone does not appear to be reversing many of the shopping behaviors consumers developed during the inflationary period,” Stewart said. “Future growth may depend less on waiting for economic conditions to normalize and more on understanding how consumer expectations around value have changed.”
Why it matters: Grocery inflation may be moderating, but consumer psychology has shifted. Retailers that continue emphasizing value through promotions, private brands, loyalty programs and clearly communicated pricing strategies may be better positioned than those expecting shoppers to return to pre-2020 purchasing habits. Acosta’s findings reinforce a broader industry trend: today’s consumers are increasingly deliberate, comparison-oriented and value-conscious—even as their ability to spend gradually improves.