A typical grocery stock-up trip now costs $366.04, according to Acosta Group’s new Affordability Tracker. The same 84-item basket cost about $288 in 2020, an increase of more than $78, or 27%. Acosta’s model basket spans 10 departments and 67 categories, and even in the latest four-week period, was still up 3.7% from a year earlier.
Those numbers explain in fairly stark terms what the industry knows only too well: why affordability remains such an intense pain point for shoppers. But there’s something interesting here, too. I think Acosta’s more important finding is that grocery purchasing power has actually improved since the worst of the inflation surge.
In other words, affordability is improving. For the customer, at least, the economics look better.
Acosta researchers measured affordability by comparing the cost of their stock-up basket with median hourly earnings for full-time hourly and salaried workers. Those earnings increased from $23.93 in 2020 to $30.88 in early 2026. At the height (or depths, if you prefer) of grocery inflation in 2023, a median worker needed more than 12.5 hours of work to buy the basket. By 2025, that figure had fallen to 11.8 hours as wage growth outpaced grocery inflation. The latest reading is about 11.9 hours.
Again, on paper, the numbers look better for consumers. But, in what I think is the most consequential conclusion in the report, shopper behavior is not reflecting this – at all.
A Savvier, Tougher Shopper
Acosta says, as I’m sure folks in the industry know, that consumers continue to prioritize value. They engage heavily with promotions and scrutinize purchases more closely than they did before the pandemic-era inflationary period.
During the inflation surge that began in 2021, shoppers learned to compare prices more frequently, pay closer attention to promotions, reconsider long-standing brand loyalties and explore alternatives that offered stronger value. What began as a practical response to rapidly rising prices increasingly became a new way of shopping – a “master’s degree” in walking the aisles, if you will. Acosta says many of those behaviors remain firmly in place even as affordability has improved.
Their findings strongly suggest any retailer waiting for consumers to “get back to normal” is likely making a big mistake.
With all that said, it would be understandable to expect a return to baseline.
This Time Is Different – And It’ll Stay That Way
Historically, economic disruptions have tended to produce temporary behavior changes. Consumers trade down, postpone purchases and seek lower-cost alternatives during periods of financial stress, then gradually relax those behaviors when conditions improve.
“It’s different this time” is usually a cliche but Acosta’s findings suggest this cycle really is new. Improvements in purchasing power have not been accompanied by corresponding changes in consumer behavior.
At the same time, the “affordability recovery” itself also appears to be leveling off. Acosta says its latest 11.9-hour affordability reading is largely unchanged from a year ago after steady improvement between 2023 and 2025. Any future gains – and those are by no means assured – are likely to be more incremental than those experienced during the initial recovery.
And so retailers might not be able to count on macroeconomic improvement to change shopping behavior for them.
In an environment like this, competitive advantage comes down to execution. Acosta specifically points to pricing architecture, promotional effectiveness, assortment strategy, value communication and shopper experience as areas that become more important as affordability gains slow.
Promotions are a good example.
During inflation, promotions helped consumers manage rapidly rising costs. But promotional engagement remains elevated even after purchasing power has improved. Acosta views that persistence as one of the clearest indicators that value-seeking behavior may have become embedded in the purchase process rather than functioning as a temporary response to economic stress.
Skepticism Is the New Normal
Brand loyalty has changed as well. Inflation encouraged consumers to experiment with private brands, alternative products and different retailers. In the process, many discovered options at different price points that challenged established assumptions about which brands deserved a place in the basket.
That does not mean premium products are finished or that shoppers have stopped spending. Acosta says consumers remain willing to spend, but increasingly expect stronger justification before doing so. Value now encompasses more than price alone; consumers are weighing quality, convenience, innovation, reliability and trust alongside cost.
That’s probably the clearest way to understand the shopper emerging from this inflation cycle; these folks aren’t necessarily poorer, but they’re much harder to convince.
Acosta ultimately argues that the industry’s challenge is shifting from affordability toward confidence: helping consumers feel that a purchase represents fair value and deserves their money. The inflation spike has moderated, and purchasing power has recovered meaningfully from 2023. But the habits developed during that period remain, and show no signs of disappearing.