News reports continue to cross my desk about economic indicator forecasts for 2021 and I am pleased to report that most of these reports point toward an improved outlook for the remaining months of this year. The primary reason is, you guessed it, the COVID-19 vaccines. But indicators also give credit to the aggressive marketing strategies being developed by the private sector to stimulate the economy and rebuild business. Then you have the federal government segment that is also doing its part to create a new, strong economic initiative via the $1.9 trillion pandemic relief package that President Biden is pushing aggressively. These two players – the federal government couple with business and industry – are striving to make an economic rebound a reality in the next 10 months. And to push his agenda, the president practically has the media stage all to himself as at press-time, both the House and Senate are out of town for the week, thus creating some media opportunities for Biden to tout his plan, which he wants to enact by mid-March, with or without Republican support.
Farm Income Indicators
In the retail food industry, many of the products stocked on store shelves start way down on the supply chain at the farm level. And the news from Politico is that the Biden-era’s first formal Farm Income Outlook report that was recently published predicts that farmers will earn a lot more money from their crops and livestock in 2021….but not enough to offset higher production costs and a steep drop-off in taxpayer aid. USDA’s forecast for $111.4 billion in net farm income may represent a nearly $10 billion decline compared to 2020 when Congress and the Trump administration flooded the farm sector with coronavirus relief payments. But there is positive news to report. Cash receipts are anticipated to increase by $11.8 billion for crops and $8.6 billion for livestock, as agricultural exports and commodity prices rebound after years of trade battles and pandemic-related supply chain disruptions. But you need to keep in mind that things can change quickly depending on the direction pandemic and additional government relief programs take in the next several months. So, hold on to your wallets and stocks as economic relief packages roll through Congress.
Food Industry Laws & Regulations
Congress has been spending so much time creating new economic relief programs that the usual influx of new proposed laws and regulatory issues impacting the food industry continue to be on the lighter side. This is unusual as with any new administration, a lot of new ideas almost always come down the legislative pike rather quickly following January 20, but the pandemic has hampered the historical trend of past administrations. Tom Vilsack, the newly confirmed secretary of agriculture is raring to move forward with new initiatives within USDA. We at Policy Solutions anticipate that a lot of proposed changes within the food industry will start to surface at the beginning of the second quarter of this year. Right now, the Agriculture Department is sitting on a $30 billion war-chest that President Biden could tap to prop up struggling restaurants, pay farmers to implement climate-friendly production and much more.
FDA Moves On Imported Seafood Pilot Program
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has launched the second phase of its Artificial Intelligence (AI) Imported Seafood Pilot program. The pilot is scheduled to run through July 31, 2021. Note that FDA says it does not anticipate any significant service interruptions to the food industry and seafood import processors because of the AI program.
The pilot is designed to enhance and improve the agency’s ability to quicky and efficiently identify imported seafood products that may pose a threat to public health. This is especially important since the U.S. imports upwards of 94 percent of its seafood supply. Following completion of the pilot, FDA will communicate on its findings to promote transparency and facilitate dialogue on how new and emerging technologies can be harnessed to solve complex public health challenges with imported seafood.
Biden And Climate Change
The Biden administration has said that climate change will be at the forefront of its legislative agenda moving forward. During the final days of last month, the new president signed an executive order that prioritized addressing the challenge of climate change and directed the secretary of agriculture to collect input from farmers, ranchers and other food industry stakeholders on how to use federal programs to encourage adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices.
The presidential effort aims to produce verifiable carbon reductions and create new sources of income and jobs for rural Americans, according to a White House statement I received.
Plant-Based Foods
There continues to be lots of news surfacing on the new technological advancements of plant-based foods. Beyond Meat Inc. and PepsiCo Inc. have announced that they will link up for a joint venture to develop, produce and market snacks and beverages made from plant-based proteins. The venture will allow Beyond Meat to reach more consumers by entering new product categories and distributions, the two companies said in a joint news release. “Beyond Meat is a cutting-edge innovator in this rapidly growing category, and we look forward to combining their unparalleled expertise with our world-class capabilities in brand-building, consumer insights and distribution to deliver exciting new options,” said PepsiCo in its press release. You will recall from my previous commentary on this technology that Beyond Meat products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat.
In other related news, according to a recent news report in Meatingplace News, the Center for Food Safety is calling on the FDA to revoke its approval of the color additive that makes the Impossible Burger “bleed” like real meat. In a recent legal brief, the non-profit Center for Food Safety said the FDA’s 2019 approval of soy leghemoglobin came without the legally required long-term animal studies to determine whether it is harmful to humans. Food Safety News reported that the FDA is supposed to have an extremely high bar for approval of color additives in food. Impossible Foods Company defended its products as having “undergone rigorous safety testing” that has met and exceeded regulatory requirements.
“Meat” from plants is the new big thing in Earth-friendly, animal-friendly food trends. But meat grown from cells could be the new next, next big thing said Politico recently. Remember, cell-based is not to be confused with the popularity of soy-based meat products that are already available in food stores. The cell-based phenomenon and how the Biden administration plans to tackle it will be addressed in next month’s column as it is a “killer bell-ringer” within our food industry. Mark my words.
Food Safety Educational Opportunities
I do not have to remind you that food safety is a critical issue within the retail food industry and one wrong step can literally destroy a company. That is why it is important for you to know that the American Conference Institute’s popular “FDA Boot Camp” – now in its 36th iteration – is scheduled to take place March 24–25, virtually this year due to the pandemic. The conference is billed as the premier event to provide food industry representatives with a roadmap to navigate the difficult terrain of FDA regulatory law.
This is an excellent conference, one that I personally attended many years ago, that provides solid information for those who oversee food safety and/or are involved in food safety public relations issues whether they are relatively new to your business or seasoned pros. Participants will learn about the overall operations of FDA, recall product withdrawal policies, FDA oversight authority, and lots of other essential information to help you perform food safety tasks. More information may be obtained by calling 888.224.2480 or going to the registration website at [email protected].
For your produce specialists, this year’s annual Center for Produce Safety (CPS) Research Symposium will be held also virtually in June and July. The CPS will present the event through a series of five weekly live webinars. Participants will learn about risk management, outbreak risk response, and resolving and optimizing detection procedures. For more information go to centerforproducesafety.org.
Final Rule On Domestic Hemp
The USDA has announced the final rule regulating the production of hemp in the U.S. The final rule now incorporates modifications to regulations established under the interim final rule published in October of 2019 that I previously wrote about. The modifications are based on public comments following the publication of the interim final rule two years ago. The final rule is available for viewing in the Federal Register and will be effective on March 22, 2021.
Key provisions of the final rule include licensing requirements, recordkeeping requirements, procedures for testing, etc. Expect now to see more hemp products hit the marketplace. For additional information, go to federalregister.gov.
COVID-19 Food Transmission
Former acting USDA Secretary Kevin Shea recently issued a statement noting that after more than a year since the coronavirus disease outbreak, his department, the FDA, and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) continue to underscore that there is no credible evidence of food or food packaging associated with or as a likely source of viral transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, the virus causing COVID-19. In addition, considering the more than 100 million cases of COVID-19, USDA has not seen epidemiological evidence of food or food packaging as the source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to humans. I bring this issue up as news reports continue to appear periodically questioning the safety of the food available to U.S. consumers and exported to international customers.
Barry Scher is associated with the public policy firm of Policy Solutions LLC and may be reached at [email protected].
