A year or more after surging egg prices dominated headlines, a much more complex pattern is emerging across the grocery basket.
To call it “inflation” wouldn’t go far enough, although that’s certainly a factor. What’s happening are sharp divergences among categories and prices rise and fall.
New Consumer Price Index (CPI) data show prices for perishable staples like coffee, tomatoes, and beef rose by double digits in March. Egg prices, already down more than 30% from their peak, have continued to fall by double digits following resolution of the avian flu crisis that led to the supply shock.
That split is particularly striking because it’s happening against a backdrop of moderating overall grocery inflation. Food-at-home price growth dipped below 2% in March – its lowest level in months – which is masking significant swings beneath the surface.
Swings like the protein category. Data shows beef prices were up more than 12% year over year, with some cuts posting increases of more than 15%, reflecting tightening cattle herds and sustained demand. Contrast that with the increasing supply of eggs.
This isn’t isolated to meat.
Coffee prices are rising sharply due to a combination of tight global supply and weather disruptions in key producing regions, particularly in Brazil and Vietnam – the world’s two largest exporters. Drought conditions and heat stress in Brazil, along with erratic rainfall in Vietnam, have constrained yields and pushed green coffee prices higher, profoundly impacting the price on the shelf.
In the produce section, volatility is being driven by regional growing disruptions and seasonal supply gaps. Tomato prices, for example, have climbed amid shifting harvest windows and weather-related crop variability in North American growing regions, creating short-term supply tightness and sharper price swings at retail.
Federal forecasts suggest the uneven pattern will persist as they predict “moderate” food inflation throughout 2026. The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects categories like beef, sugar and beverages to outpace overall grocery inflation in 2026, even as eggs decline.
The industry – and its customers – are enduring a multi-category volatility cycle where prices are moving in opposite directions at the same time. That makes forecasting harder, pricing less predictable, and the customer experience more confusing at the shelf. The best operators will be able to thread the needle until conditions moderate.
