Take soda out of the SNAP basket and what happens? The obvious answer is that soda sales go down. And based on the early data, they do.
But that’s not the interesting part. The interesting part is what happens to the money that used to buy the soda, because it doesn’t necessarily disappear. It moves.
That could create one of the more interesting shifts in the grocery basket over the next year. States across the country are beginning to restrict which products shoppers can purchase with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, including soda, candy, energy drinks and other sweetened beverages.
There will be plenty of debate about whether that’s good policy. I’ll leave that debate to someone else. I’m interested in something much simpler: What does the shopper do next?
We’re starting to get an answer. New research from the National Bureau of Economic Research examining SNAP restrictions implemented in 2026 found that purchases of excluded sugary drinks among the average SNAP household declined 12.4 percent. A separate NBER study found something remarkably similar, with soda purchases declining approximately 13 percent.
So the restrictions appear to be doing exactly what you would expect. People are buying less soda with SNAP. Case closed? Not quite.
Researchers also found evidence that when only certain sugary beverages were restricted, shoppers partially shifted purchases toward beverages that remained eligible. That’s the part grocery retailers should be studying, because it suggests the sale isn’t always disappearing. The basket may simply be rebuilding itself.
Think about a shopper walking into the store with the same basket she’s purchased dozens of times. Chicken, tortillas, cheese, produce, cereal and a 12-pack of soda are all part of the trip. Only this time, the soda isn’t eligible for SNAP.
Now she has a decision to make. She can leave it behind, pay cash for it or buy an eligible beverage instead. She could also take the SNAP dollars that previously paid for soda and spend them somewhere completely different.
Maybe it’s another pound of chicken. Maybe it’s fruit, breakfast or a store-brand product that stretches those dollars a little further. There are dozens of possibilities, and that’s why looking only at soda sales misses the bigger story.
If soda purchases decline 12%, knowing that number isn’t enough. Retailers should want to know what happened to the rest of the basket. This is exactly where loyalty and transaction data become incredibly valuable.
Don’t just measure the affected category. Follow the basket. Look at what appeared in baskets after restricted products disappeared and compare that behavior with what shoppers were doing before the change.
Did juice increase? Did bottled water benefit? Did private label gain share, or did shoppers continue buying the same soda but simply switch tender?
Then go one step further. Did those dollars migrate into completely different areas of the store? Did the average basket become larger or smaller?
That’s where I think the real opportunity lies. A retailer sees carbonated soft drinks, juice, sports drinks, bottled water and functional beverages as separate categories, often with separate buyers, reports and shelf strategies. The shopper doesn’t care about any of that.
She may see something much simpler: I need something for my kids to drink with dinner. The category is irrelevant to that shopper. The need isn’t.
Take away one solution and the shopper looks for another. That’s basic substitution, but when it happens across millions of transactions, seemingly small changes can create meaningful winners and losers throughout the store.
There’s another part of this change retailers can’t overlook: the checkout. SNAP restrictions aren’t identical across the country, with different states restricting different products on different schedules. That’s difficult enough for retailers to manage internally.
Now imagine being the shopper. You’ve purchased the same product with SNAP for years, put it in your cart like you’ve done dozens of times before and reach the register. Suddenly, it doesn’t go through and there are six people waiting behind you.
That’s no longer just a government policy issue. That’s a retailer experience issue. And it’s one retailers have some ability to control.
POS systems have to get eligibility right. Digital carts have to get it right, associates need to understand the changes, and retailer apps or shelf communication may need to help shoppers understand what’s eligible before they reach checkout. Confusion creates friction, and grocery shopping already has plenty of friction.
Over the coming months, we’ll hear a lot about whether SNAP restrictions are working. We’ll hear about soda sales, candy purchases and eventually health outcomes. Those are all important conversations.
But the grocery industry should be watching something else just as closely. What replaces the restricted purchase? Because consumers adapt when you change the price, package size or promotion, and they’ll adapt when you change what SNAP can purchase, too.
Some products will lose and others will gain. Somewhere inside millions of grocery transactions, shoppers will quietly tell retailers exactly how they’re responding. Retailers just have to know where to look.
Because the real story won’t be what disappeared from the basket. It’ll be what replaced it.