Holiday shoppers could well see attractive prices on turkey, ham and other seasonal staples this year.
But it would be a mistake to take that as evidence food inflation is continuing to back off. In fact, the opposite is probably true.
Cal Poly associate professor of agri-business Dr. Ricky Volpe said during an FMI-The Food Industry Association media briefing that grocery inflation could accelerate during the final quarter of 2026 as diesel, electricity, storage, transportation and agricultural-input costs work their way through the supply chain toward the grocery shelf.
“There’s a real chance that Q4 of 2026 is going to be the most inflationary of the year so far,” he said.
Nevertheless, the biggest products in weekly circulars, digital promotions and holiday displays could tell a very different story. Holiday pricing can operate according to its own peculiar logic.
Demand for traditional holiday foods rises sharply, but retailers frequently lower prices on those products rather than using the occasion to charge more.
“A lot of retailers have realized that one of the most effective ways to build the basket sizes, build store loyalty, build foot traffic, is to offer really competitive prices on those sort of key, absolute foundational holiday items,” Volpe said.
The beloved Thanksgiving turkey is the most familiar example. You might sell turkey, ham or another high-profile item at an extremely competitive price because, face it, shoppers are unlikely to leave the store with only that one product. They’ll take along some produce, butter, eggs, milk, stuffing, baking ingredients, beverages, desserts; all the little extras that turn a discounted centerpiece into a considerably larger (and potentially more profitable) basket.
Of course there’s absolutely nothing new about using a holiday fave as a traffic driver. Having heard what Prof. Volpe has to say, I think the difference this year will be the sheer size of the disconnect between the prices shoppers notice and the inflation creeping in across the rest of the store.
Holiday Promotions Are More Important Than Ever
It’s entirely possible that an expertly promoted turkey would create the impression that holiday food prices are “under control.” Meanwhile, a retailer could be paying more to refrigerate that turkey, move it through the supply chain and keep the store running. Those costs don’t vanish just because the front-page circular price looks good.
Holiday promotions are always important, but this year I think they’ll be verging on “absolutely critical” territory.
For savvy consumers willing to plan carefully, that competition could produce some genuine steals. FMI research found that 86% of consumers consider loyalty programs important, while 59% regularly use grocery loyalty programs. Around half use their rewards while planning a trip; they won’t wait until they reach the store.
That advance planning will probably become even more valuable as retailers place their deepest discounts behind digital coupons, loyalty accounts, minimum purchases or spending thresholds. The advertised price may be compelling, but shoppers increasingly have to do some work to receive it.
Slackening Volumes Loom Large on the List of Fears
FMI’s Andy Harig said retailers are also worried about weakening sales volume, giving them another reason to make their stores attractive holiday destinations.
“I do think you’ll see specials and you’ll see some other stuff like that that allows people to have an affordable holiday, even if some of those conditions are a little bit tough on the bigger picture in the economy,” he said.
And that’s what I think will be the defining contradiction of the 2026 holiday grocery season: neon-bright, high-viz bargains… surrounded by stealthy inflation.