Produce departments are dealing with an unusually broad collection of supply problems this fall. Weather, crop transitions, disease and insect pressure are tightening availability across several major commodities, while transportation costs are adding another layer of expense.
This comes at a time when some experts believe food inflation is poised to resume.
Some of these problems should prove temporary as new growing regions come online. Others, particularly the severe crop losses in Mid-Atlantic apples, will be with retailers for considerably longer.
Here are 10 popular fruits and vegetables worth watching in the weeks and months ahead…
1. Apples
The national apple crop is smaller this year, but the real story is regional. USDA estimates cited by USApple put 2026 U.S. production at roughly 10.4 billion pounds, down 6% from 2025. Pennsylvania’s crop is expected to fall 58% to about 5 million bushels, while Virginia production is forecast down 48% to 1.8 million bushels after spring freeze damage. New York, the country’s second-largest producing state, is down about 10% to 32 million bushels.
That matters considerably for Mid-Atlantic retailers during prime local-apple season. The national crop can partly compensate, particularly with Washington still producing about 176 million bushels, but regional fruit will be much harder to source. Current market reports show higher prices for Reds, Golds and Granny Smith, with Fuji supplies described as extremely tight. Gala is one notable exception as the new crop reaches the market.
2. Oranges
Oranges are dealing with a classic seasonal transition problem, but it’s a significant one. California’s Valencia season is winding down just as the Navel crop is preparing to ramp up. Current Valencia inventories are concentrated in larger 56- and 72-count fruit, while 113- and 138-count oranges are extremely limited. Markon expects Valencia supplies to last through late October, with limited Navel harvesting beginning in mid-October and volume building over the following three to four weeks.
That puts particular pressure on retailers and institutional buyers that depend on smaller fruit. Distributors have been recommending substitutions into larger sizes, and Primo Produce currently lists oranges among products in short supply. The good news is that this should be temporary: prices on smaller oranges are expected to ease as Navel volume increases later in October.
3. Limes
Limes may offer one of the clearest examples of a supply problem turning into a significant price increase. Mexican production is transitioning between growing regions, while heat and recent rain have constrained harvesting and availability. Larger fruit is particularly difficult to source.
The numbers are striking. USDA-derived shipping-point data put wholesale limes at an average $41.62 on Oct. 6, up 9.4% in one week and 88% above the five-year October average of $22.11. The crop is currently concentrated in smaller 200-, 230- and 250-count fruit, while supplies from newer growing regions are beginning to shift the size mix. For supermarkets, this is a commodity where the wholesale pressure is substantial enough to become difficult to absorb.
4. Broccoli
Broccoli supplies remain extremely tight as Diamondback moth pressure damages younger fields and reduces yields. Current distributor reports have broccoli markets moving higher, with some value-added products subject to supply controls.
The wholesale numbers bear that out. USDA-derived data put broccoli at an average $32.79 at shipping point on Oct. 5, about 17% above the five-year October average of $28.08. That isn’t the most dramatic price increase on this list, but broccoli remains vulnerable because the underlying crop problem is affecting production rather than simply creating a short logistical delay.
5. Lettuce and Romaine
Lettuce may be the most serious vegetable supply issue retailers are confronting at the moment. Lower yields in California’s Salinas Valley and Santa Maria growing regions are tightening iceberg supplies, while Impatiens necrotic spot virus, or INSV, continues to reduce weights, yields and quality in lettuce fields. Romaine hearts, green leaf and red leaf markets have also been moving higher.
One current Mid-Atlantic distributor reports just a 15% fill rate for artisan romaine and has lettuce on its shortage list. Meanwhile, an aggregation of USDA market reports put the national wholesale average for iceberg lettuce at $52.42 per package on Oct. 5, up nearly 64% in 30 days. The market has moved rapidly enough that retailers should be watching both acquisition costs and product quality.
6. Bell Peppers
Green bell peppers are another familiar produce staple running into weather-related supply trouble. East Coast markets are expected to remain active through mid-October after recent weather reduced availability, with relief dependent partly on southern growing regions beginning production. Red, yellow and orange pepper supplies have been considerably steadier.
The price picture illustrates how uneven produce markets can be. USDA terminal-market data compiled Oct. 6 showed conventional green bell peppers averaging about $21.54 per 1 1/9-bushel carton, but that was 84% above the comparable week a year earlier. In other words, this isn’t necessarily a shortage across every pepper variety; green bells are where retailers should be paying particular attention.
7. Tomatoes
Tomatoes are experiencing one of the sharpest current market disruptions, especially grape and cherry varieties. Eastern grape tomato production is light, Mexican volume is limited and Florida isn’t expected to begin shipping meaningful supplies until mid-October. Primo Produce reported both grape and cherry tomato markets up and sold out in its Oct. 2 market report. Roma supplies also remain tight, although round tomato availability is beginning to improve.
Wholesale grape tomato prices show how quickly the situation has changed. USDA-derived shipping-point data put the Oct. 6 average at $47.10, up 61.9% in a single week and 113% above the five-year October average of $22.08. That’s easily one of the largest price dislocations among mainstream produce commodities right now.
8. Squash
Zucchini and yellow squash supplies are tight along the East Coast during another seasonal production transition. Volumes coming out of North Carolina and New Jersey have been light, while Georgia production is building and Florida isn’t expected to begin harvesting until mid- to late October. Distributors currently have squash on their shortage and market-alert lists.
The important distinction here is variety. Not every squash market is expensive: some winter squash varieties are actually cheaper than they were earlier this year. The pressure is concentrated more heavily in summer squash and zucchini. New York wholesale data, for example, showed baby green zucchini around $44 per 5-pound case, up roughly 57% over three months as of Oct. 6.
9. Potatoes
Potatoes aren’t facing the across-the-board shortage seen in lettuce or tomatoes, but retailers are seeing tight supplies in the large russet counts that matter for certain merchandising and foodservice applications. Current reports identify 40- through 70-count potatoes as particularly short, while elevated transportation costs are helping keep the overall market firm.
Size makes a substantial difference in the current market. USDA shipping-point data show 40- to 50-count russet cartons commanding about $44 per hundredweight, compared with roughly $22 per hundredweight for 100-count potatoes. That’s a useful reminder that an apparently stable potato market can conceal significant supply and pricing problems within individual sizes.
10. Asparagus
Asparagus rounds out the list with one of the more persistent supply problems. Mexican production remains constrained by low yields, heat, rain and seasonal transitions in Baja and Sonora. Peru has provided some additional volume, but its northern growing regions have also experienced weather-related yield problems. One industry report estimates productive acreage in Peru is roughly 20% below historical levels as older fields reach the end of their productive lives.
Prices remain correspondingly high. USDA-derived shipping-point data put asparagus at $47.21 on Oct. 6, 67% above the five-year October average of $28.21. That’s actually down 14.4% from the previous week, suggesting the extreme pressure may be easing somewhat, but today’s price remains far outside normal October territory.
The Produce Department Has a Lot to Watch
None of this means supermarket produce departments are about to run out of apples, lettuce or tomatoes. Modern produce supply chains can shift sourcing, change sizes, substitute growing regions and lean on imports when individual markets tighten.
But those adjustments come at a cost.
Right now, the most striking numbers are difficult to ignore: Mid-Atlantic apple production down nearly 50% or more in two important states; limes nearly 90% above their normal October wholesale price; asparagus 67% above normal; and grape tomatoes more than double their five-year October average.
For retailers, that means fall produce merchandising will require more flexibility on origin, size and variety than usual. And for shoppers, some of the most ordinary items in the produce department could be where food inflation becomes particularly visible over the next several weeks.