The retail supermarket industry is undergoing a significant transformation, particularly in the seafood sector, where changing consumer preferences, sustainability concerns, and economic factors are reshaping how seafood is sourced, sold, and consumed.
As of 2023, retail seafood sales in the United States reached approximately $18.8 billion, according to Statista.com. Fortune Business reported that globally, the seafood market was valued at $358.68 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow to $386.73 billion in 2024.
In December 2024, U.S. retail seafood sales experienced a decline. Fresh seafood sales decreased by 5.4 percent compared to December 2023, totaling $738 million, while frozen seafood sales dropped by 4.4 percent to $666 million, per data from SeafoodSource.com.
Looking ahead, the global seafood market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.0 percent, reaching $270.43 billion in 2025. In the United States, the fish and seafood market is projected to generate $31.52 billion in revenue in 2025, with an anticipated annual growth rate of 3.10 percent from 2025 to 2029.
These projections indicate a positive outlook for the seafood industry, both domestically and globally, despite recent fluctuations in sales figures.
However, because nearly 94 percent of the seafood consumed in the U.S. is imported, potential tariffs are a crucial factor in determining market stability. If implemented, these tariffs could lead to price hikes for popular seafood items such as shrimp, salmon, and tilapia, key staples in supermarkets nationwide. Rising costs at the wholesale level would inevitably be passed down to consumers, potentially dampening demand and forcing retailers to explore alternative sourcing options. Given the existing inflationary pressures in the grocery sector, the combination of tariffs and supply chain challenges could further complicate retailers’ pricing strategies.
Shifting Consumer Trends in the Seafood Market
Despite the economic uncertainty, the seafood industry continues to evolve as sustainability, convenience, and transparency remain top priorities for consumers. Retailers are responding by introducing responsibly sourced seafood, investing in traceability technology, and offering more convenient meal solutions. Certifications such as the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) and Aquaculture Stewardship Council (ASC) are becoming key differentiators for supermarket seafood selections, ensuring that products meet ethical and environmental standards.
At the same time, alternative seafood products are gaining traction. The growing plant-based movement has led to a surge in demand for seafood substitutes made from algae, soy, and pea protein. Brands like Good Catch and Gardein are expanding their offerings, with plant-based tuna, crab cakes, and shrimp alternatives seeing a 14 percent growth in sales in 2024. This trend reflects a broader shift toward sustainable protein sources, which could become even more prominent if tariffs make traditional seafood less affordable.
Premium and wild-caught seafood also continue to attract high-income consumers willing to pay for traceability and responsible sourcing. Wild-caught Alaskan salmon, Chilean sea bass, and other high-end options are thriving, with retailers incorporating QR codes and blockchain technology to provide shoppers with sourcing details at the point of sale. The demand for “boat-to-table” freshness is particularly strong, driving grocery stores to highlight regional fisheries and local seafood sourcing.
Frozen And Ready-to-Eat Seafood Driving Sales
While fresh seafood has traditionally been the gold standard, frozen and shelf-stable seafood categories are seeing steady growth, driven by affordability, convenience, and technological advancements in freezing techniques. In 2024, frozen seafood accounted for nearly half of total U.S. grocery seafood sales, reflecting a 5 percent year-over-year increase. Supermarkets are also expanding their offerings of pre-seasoned, pre-cooked, and microwavable seafood meals, catering to busy consumers looking for quick and nutritious meal solutions.
Convenience is also fueling demand for grab-and-go seafood, including sushi, poke bowls, and pre-marinated fillets. Retailers like Whole Foods and Kroger are investing in seafood meal kits that come with pre-portioned ingredients, making it easier than ever for consumers to prepare high-quality seafood dishes at home. The emergence of fermented seafood products, fortified with probiotics and Omega-3s, is another indication that consumers are seeking functional foods that support overall health.
How Tariffs Could Reshape The Retail Seafood Industry
If the Trump administration proceeds with additional tariffs on imported seafood, the retail supermarket industry could face a significant reshuffling of supply chains. Domestic seafood producers might see a surge in demand as retailers look for local alternatives to offset rising import costs. However, the U.S. fishing industry may not have the capacity to fully meet demand, leading to supply shortages and further price increases.
Some retailers may opt to absorb some of the tariff-driven cost increases, but given the slim margins in grocery retail, much of the burden will likely fall on consumers. Analysts predict that tariffs could add an additional $1,000 to $1,200 in annual grocery expenses for the average American household, compounding existing inflationary pressures. This economic reality may push more shoppers toward frozen and alternative seafood products as they seek budget-friendly protein options.
The Road Ahead For Supermarkets
The seafood category remains one of the most dynamic and rapidly evolving segments in grocery retail. As retailers navigate the dual challenges of shifting consumer preferences and potential trade disruptions, flexibility, innovation, and strategic sourcing will be key to sustaining growth.
While uncertainty looms over the industry, retailers who successfully balance affordability, sustainability, and transparency will be best positioned to maintain customer loyalty. The emergence of lab-grown seafood, blockchain-based traceability, and AI-powered inventory management could help supermarkets stay ahead of the curve, ensuring that they can adapt to economic pressures without compromising on quality.
Ultimately, the combination of emerging trends, technological innovation, and geopolitical factors will determine the trajectory of the supermarket seafood industry in the coming years. As consumers demand greater transparency and sustainability, and policymakers weigh economic protectionism against market stability, the grocery retail sector will need to remain agile and responsive to thrive in an ever-changing landscape.
