The third quarter of 2026 is in the history books now… but it’s left us plenty of clues about where grocery is headed next. Bryce Graham digs into our hand-picked stock basket and finds a surprisingly sharp divide between Q3’s winners and losers — and some signals worth watching as Q4 gets underway. Duke Winston meanwhile takes the broader view, pulling five lessons from Q3 equity performance that retailers and CPG companies should carry into 2027.
I’m looking at a different kind of divide in NIQ’s latest consumer data: value and premium are both gaining ground, while the comfortable CPG middle gets increasingly uncomfortable.
Alexander Wissel is also continuing his six-part conversation with Giant Food’s Mandy Katz. This time, he asked her to build a healthy monthly food plan around just $200, and the result is remarkably practical – and tasty.
And finally, something considerably more social: we headed out to Klein’s Family Markets’ annual charitable golf tournament to capture the day for our latest photo gallery.
You can read it all below…
Q3 Split Grocery Stocks Into Winners and Losers
We started tracking our hand-picked basket of grocery and CPG stocks because we thought it might tell us something about the food trade beyond the usual earnings reports. Three quarters into 2026, it certainly has. Grocery stocks may still carry that old “defensive” label, but there hasn’t been much defensive about their behavior lately. Between inflation, high energy costs, geopolitical turmoil and an AI-fueled market, Q3 produced some sharp divides between winners and losers.
More Tough News for Grocery’s “Middle”
We’ve spent much of 2026 talking about the bifurcated consumer, but NIQ’s latest outlook suggests the split is becoming just as visible inside the shopping cart. Value is winning. Premium is winning. The broad middle — long a comfortable home for established CPG brands — is getting squeezed from both directions. NIQ found 67% of consumers would rather save if a product isn’t clearly better, while 56% prefer something distinctly premium when they spend more.
I’m taking a closer look at the NIQ numbers and their implications here…
$200 a Month for Food — and a Healthy Diet
In another segment of our six-part interview with Giant Food Director of Healthy Living Mandy Katz, we’re putting an increasingly relevant grocery question to the test: just how far can $200 a month stretch? Katz built a plan using Giant prices that delivers 90 meals for roughly $180 — about $2 apiece — while still providing sufficient calories, protein and fiber. It can be done, but there’s a catch. Eating healthy on that kind of budget means planning carefully, cooking at home and making some very deliberate choices about variety and convenience.
Alexander Wissel has the interview here…
Five Q3 Lessons for Grocery & CPG Companies
The third quarter of 2026 didn’t give the industry a neat story, but it did give us a pretty good look at where the pressure is building. Consumers kept spending, but selectively. Grocery inflation moderated, but household budgets remained squeezed. Value became more important just as everyone started competing for it, while digital shifted from differentiator to necessity. Taken together we have something like a preview of the operating reality heading into 2027.
Duke Winston has five lessons from Q3 that are worth carrying into the new year and beyond…
Gallery: Klein’s Family Market Charitable Golf Outing
On September 16, Klein’s Family Markets celebrated its Annual Charitable Golf Tournament, benefiting the Klein’s ShopRite of Maryland Charitable Foundation.
Alexander Wissel was on hand to capture some of the moments for our photo galleries…