The “K” shape is starting to show up everywhere, like Devil’s Tower in Close Encounters of the Third Kind… We’ve seen it manifest across virtually the entire economy, and it’s absolutely making its way into grocery, from store layouts to prices.
What we’re seeing now isn’t quite inflation, though that’s part of it. It’s more like volatility, as some prices skyrocket while others plummet — proteins up, eggs down, center store uneven, and shoppers and retailers alike left to make sense of a basket that doesn’t quite add up the way it used to. The team has more on this below.
We’ve also got coverage of the slow-motion horserace between Walmart and Amazon. Bentonville finds its market share slipping within days of Amazon declaring itself the no. 2 player in the industry… even as its physical grocery plans are up in the air.
Our Maria Maggio was at the Junction Center in Manheim, PA recently to take some photos of a big trade show and conference staged by Four Seasons Produce. And we check in our our basket of grocery and CPG stocks to look at winners and laggards in one of the toughest markets in American history.
It’s all waiting below…
It’s Not Just Inflation
Grocery prices are, bluntly, all over the place right now. On paper, we’ve just seen the lowest price increases since late 2025, but out there in the aisles, we find meat is way up… while eggs are way down… and a lot of conflict in between.
All of this is set against a backdrop of near-unprecedented geopolitical and market uncertainty. And yet, the government hasn’t tweaked its “moderate” inflation forecasts at all.
Amazon Claims the No. 2 Spot in Grocery
Walmart is the undisputed king of grocery on the national scene (although it is slipping somewhat). And now Amazon, a company for whom grocery is a tertiary business at best, says it’s looking to “place” in the grocery stakes this year.
Amazon is still looking for a physical grocery model that works. It has tried, and cancelled, several different “experiments” — like Fresh — already. But the fact remains that this company’s coffers are full enough that it can afford to fail until it finds the right answer.
Here’s how things stand today…
ICYMI: This Is What Outperforming the Market Looks Like in 2026
Grocery and CPG stocks are traditionally “defensive” — they’re where investors go when the going gets rough. Usually.
But this isn’t a normal market, and we’re seeing the same K-shaped divergence in this sector that’s appearing virtually everywhere else.
Still, there are clear winners here. Time for a victory lap…
Gallery: Four Seasons Fresh Fest, April 2026
At left, David and Jason Hollinger welcome attendees.
You can view the entire gallery of photos right here on foodtradenews.com…
Walmart’s Market Slip Is Significant, But Not What You Think
The Bentonville, AR-based mega-retailer is, by a wide margin, the largest grocery retailer in the United States. The list of superlatives is long, but last week it came to light that Walmart’s market share had slipped ever so slightly — just a few tenths of a percent.
Of course, in a grocery market that’s on track to hit $1 trillion by 2028, that tiny fraction represents serious money.
What’s happening isn’t a collapse so much as an opening-up around the edges…
