The biggest threat to your local supermarket this holiday season might not be another grocery store. It might be the Christmas decorations aisle at Walmart or Target.
Think about it. A shopper heads to Target for wrapping paper, lights and a few gifts. Then comes a display of holiday candy. A deal on soda. Maybe some chocolate chips for the cookies they plan to bake. Before long, half the grocery list is in the cart.
That’s the challenge facing supermarkets from Black Friday through New Year’s Day. Mass merchants and warehouse clubs don’t have to win the entire grocery trip. They just have to pick off enough items to make the next supermarket visit smaller—or unnecessary.
The competition is real. A 2026 SSRS survey found that 62% of U.S. adults live in households that typically buy groceries at Walmart, versus 52% at major grocery chains; 44% shop at warehouse clubs. These groups overlap, but the message is clear: shoppers already move comfortably between channels.
The Holiday Trip Is Everybody’s Business
Across the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, operators such as ShopRite, Stop & Shop, Giant Food, The GIANT Company, Weis Markets, Wegmans, Publix, Harris Teeter and Food Lion face the same question: How do you keep food dollars from following the shopper into the general merchandise aisle?
The answer isn’t to start selling more Christmas ornaments. It’s to make the supermarket the easiest, most reliable place to finish the food shopping.
Consider the family shopping at Costco for gifts that also picks up cheese, crackers, a roast and frozen appetizers. Those purchases might have been separate supermarket trips. Instead, they’re part of one club-store receipt.
Sell the Occasion, Not Just the Item
Shoppers want value, but value isn’t always the lowest shelf price. Circana’s October 2026 holiday research found that 74% of consumers expect to use money-saving strategies, including promotions and store brands. That’s a reason to make offers visible—and useful.
A chocolate chip discount might move chocolate chips. A holiday baking event that brings together flour, sugar, butter, frosting and decorations can help fill a basket. The same thinking works for entertaining: pair crackers with cheese, dips with chips, and frozen appetizers with beverages.
Regional knowledge matters, too. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic stores can spotlight convenient prepared foods, seafood and specialty bakery offerings where local demand supports them. Southeast grocers can build around fresh departments, holiday hams and family meal solutions. The assortment should follow shopper data, not regional stereotypes.
The Empty Shelf Problem
Now imagine the baking promotion worked. The shopper comes in on December 23, list in hand, and the butter is gone. They’re not coming back four days later. They’re going somewhere else—possibly for everything else on that list.
That’s why a holiday out-of-stock is more than a missed unit sale. It can become a lost basket. AlixPartners’ 2025 holiday research found that only about one-third of shoppers would complete an out-of-stock purchase on the same retailer’s website. The finding covers holiday retail broadly, but the warning applies to grocery: availability shapes where shoppers go next.
Manufacturers and retailers need to plan promotions together, account for holiday demand spikes and replenish shelves before the rush. In the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, a winter storm can compress several days of demand into one frantic afternoon. Across all three regions, inventory in the backroom is no comfort to someone staring at an empty display.
Fresh Is a Reason to Come Back
Supermarkets still have a powerful advantage: fresh meat, seafood, produce, deli, bakery and prepared foods. Those departments can anchor the meal, with center-store products completing it. A ready-to-serve holiday dinner or a well-merchandised party spread gives shoppers a reason to make a dedicated grocery trip.
And don’t stop at Christmas. From December 26 through New Year’s Day, the mission changes to snacks, appetizers, beverages and easy entertaining. The displays should change with it.
The Final Measure
Holiday success isn’t just how many units moved on promotion. It’s whether the offer grew the basket, earned a profitable trip and kept shoppers coming back.
Supermarkets don’t have to win every holiday shopping trip. But they do need to make sure the grocery basket doesn’t leave with the Christmas decorations.
